By definition, we cannot know what will revolutionize our World

Photo by Will Esayenko on Unsplash

People believed battleships would win wars in the World War II.

Every major power had their plans.

Nations worked out their strategies and invested heavily in building their fleets centered around Battleships. For example, Japan, subject to the limitations of “Washington Naval Treaty”, decided to build Mega Battleships to prevail in the war.

And it turned out that Carriers won the war. And Battleships proved highly ineffective in battles and totally defenseless again attacks from the air.

Photo by Marco Krenn on Unsplash

People could not have predicted it.

In fact, Americans only started to rely on Carriers after Pearl Harbor where they lost all their battleships.

If people had known that, the Japanese would not have built their Mega Battleships, but redirected the resources for carriers and planes.

The Japanese would have also either launched the attack on Pearl Harbor when the US Carriers were in the harbor or invested more afterwards to destroy the US Carriers.

But there is no “if” in history.

Photo by McKy Havemann on Unsplash

The point is that we cannot predict what would revolutionize our World next, by definition.

Because if we could, we would have prepared for it, just as all the major powers prepared for a war of Battleships.

What we could do is keep an open mind and boost our ability to adapt.

Anyone who falls behind will risk total defeat, like Japan.




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